27 Jan 2022

Bitcoin, Cosmos and Luna Market Analysis from the past week.

Market Analysis from the last week of the most influent markets in the cryptocurrency world.

BTC/BUSD Market

Bitcoin has not had a great start to the year, after moving sideways for a few days following the first week of January's fall, it has now fallen even further, touching some of the lowest prices in over 6 months. It is still unclear whether bitcoin price has found its bottom, but things aren't looking good after the recent fall wiped out over $1.5trillion in the overall crypto market over the last two months.
BTC/BUSD weekly candles chart with supports and resistance
BTC/BUSD weekly candles chart with supports and resistance
Since losing its 50EMA level back in early January, when the support level of $45k was breached, bitcoin has continued what now appears to be a bear market cycle, which started after the ATH of $68k in November. The next most significant level would be the 100EMA that matches with the support level of $32k-31k, which is one of the most significant, as seen during previous market cycles.

Bitcoin today has looked really positive, making a much-needed bounce after prices went below $33k on Monday, seeing prices trade in the $39.1/37.8k resistance range. Similarly, many altcoins have also rallied, such as Ethereum and Luna, bouncing towards upper resistance levels. It would be great for bitcoin to be able to regain this range and consolidate above it. This would be a really positive move and could suggest a potential change in trend.

Why is bitcoin crashing is what many have wondered about over the last week. While it's hard to attribute a specific reason, as there hasn't been a specific example of bad news regarding crypto, the most obvious answer is that its downtrend has not yet ended. Support levels have been touched on low time frames, but until they consolidate on a larger time scale, it's likely to continue seeing this downtrend. As previously mentioned, it's likely that the ultimate support will be found around $32/30k, but until then there is still a lot of uncertainty surrounding bitcoin's price over the next few months.

Relevant BTC News

In recent news regarding bitcoin, the Biden administration is reportedly drafting a government-wide cryptocurrency strategy as an executive order. The directive is expected to be presented to President Joe Biden in the coming weeks, and the strategy could be implemented as early as next month.
While it's still unclear what position the US government is likely to take regarding crypto, the directive is meant to detail economic, regulatory, and national security challenges posed by bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.

This could be really important news in the crypto world, as many Americans had to watch from the sidelines, as many exchanges and crypto providers were unable to operate in the US over the last few years. This will definitely be a story to keep your eyes on and to see the impact it will have on Bitcoin in the near future.
Last but not least, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting took place in the US yesterday. Bitcoin, like many other assets, has shown very high volatility previously and during Powell's press conference.

ATOM/BUSD Market

Cosmos (ATOM) is an ever-expanding ecosystem of interoperable and sovereign blockchain apps and services, built for a decentralized future. Cosmos (ATOM) saw massive gains in 2021, reaching an ATH over $44, which was over 86% higher than the price at which it started the year.

What seems to be interesting with this crypto coin, is that it doesn't seem to follow closely Bitcoin's price nor the overall market trend. As, like bitcoin, many other cryptos started the year by falling, the same can't be said for Atom, which continued its rise, until reaching prices close to its ATH around $44. The prices have slightly corrected since then, but are still looking really bullish. ATOM/BUSD climbed to an intraday high of $36.23, which is around $10 from its all-time high (ATH), which it hit on January 7th.
ATOM/BUSD weekly candles chart with supports and resistance
ATOM/BUSD weekly candles chart with supports and resistance
On a daily, prices keep on correlating quite well with the EMA levels (moving averages). We saw in the past bounces on all of the EMA levels, with the most significant one on the EMA200, and we can expect the same to occur again. Currently, price is ranging between the 20EMA and the 50EMA, but a retracement to lower levels can't be excluded, and it's likely to see the 100EMA and 200EMA retested, which would correspond to the $32 and the $28 price levels.

On higher time frames (Weekly) we can see Cosmos coin trending towards the 20EMA, level that it touched several times but always closed way above. This would be the first key support level, around $32. If this level doesn't hold, it's likely to see prices drop closer to the 50EMA or $22. Whilst this scenario remains possible, it's still unlikely, as the support level around $28 still remains the most significant one.

Cosmos crypto price prediction would suggest that the coin price will keep on following for a few days as it consolidates above one of the lower support levels. Once this has been achieved, it's likely to see a bounce and a continuation of the strong up-trend that Cosmos has been following for the last few months.

Cosmos (ATOM) news

In recent news, 21 Shares Launches First Crypto ETP for Cosmos (ATOM). This ETP is set to trade in pairs against CHF, EU, and USD on Switzerland's SIX Exchange.
This is great news for the Cosmos community as it's a great product for investors looking to capitalize on the growth trajectory and decentralized blockchains that are empowering the early stages of the metaverse. After this news, Cosmos' price rose over 10% to $39.41 but has cooled down ever since, continuing a correction after the exponential growth seen in the previous weeks.

LUNA/BUSD Market

Terra Luna has been one of the best performing crypto of the past year, growing exponentially throughout 2021. Starting off with a value of below $1, it increased to over $100 by the end of the year, marking an over 100x gain. What made this one of the best performing coins was the fact that other than some minor retracements along its moving average, it has kept on growing consistently, and still seems to be in an uptrend.
LUNA/BUSD daily candles chart with supports and resistance
LUNA/BUSD daily candles chart with supports and resistance
Over the last few months we saw Luna coin price follow quite closely its moving averages, and generally bouncing on the 20EMA or the 50EMA on the daily, and continuing strongly the trend. We saw in late November a drop to the 100EMA, but this move was short-lived and followed by a new ATH. The same repeated itself after the ATH of over $100 was reached and the price retraced back to the 20EME and consequently to the 50EMA. However, the price has now fallen below and breached the 100EMA, likely going towards the 200EMA.

Terra Luna crypto is currently between the 100EMA and 200EMA, and respectively between the upper resistance of $62.5 and the support of $52. It seems to have slightly correlated to Bitcoin's price over the last few weeks and follows a similar downward trend, likely resulting from the crypto market falling as a whole. In the following days, it's likely to keep on correlating with Bitcoin and continue the fall too. Once BTC stabilizes and starts either bouncing or lateralizing, Luna is likely to see a bounce too and move back towards the 100EMA. This would be the first level it needs to regain in order to move back towards $70.
Luna crypto price prediction for this year would suggest that the price might retrace even further in the short run, and come closer to the support level around $52. This would mark a total retracement of nearly 50% from the ATH of last December. This would be a great entry point for long-term exposure and it would also coincide with the 200EMA level.

If Luna manages to lateralize or bounce after reaching this support, it's likely to bounce and head back towards the upper moving averages. This would be an encouraging move that would suggest that Luna is back on track on the upper trend line. Until then a lot of uncertainty remains, in particular depending on Bitcoin's price in the next few weeks.
BTC/BUSD, ATOM/BUSD, and LUNA/BUSD are available for trading on yanda.io dApp, together with hundreds of different market pairs.

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Author: Matteo Poole
info@yanda.io